8xxx series SSN - so I think that helps bidding initially
Correct. You should get your first pick in all likelihood. Second pick worst case.
Goal: Maximize income over 17 years, while minimizing commutes (1-2 trips per month [even if they're longer] is better than 3-4 trips per month).
You've reiterated this theme a couple times so I'll assume that while you'll be a commuter by choice for the remainder, you don't like actually commuting and want to minimize the number of commutes
With that said, pretty much all NB positions will suck more often than a WB. However there is a huge caveat to that. You can bid reserve and stack your days on together to 1 or 2 commutes even in narrowbody categories and only have 1-2 commutes a month once you get even a little BES seniority which should come quick. Obviously that would require some arranged accommodation at your expense but there are many options i.e. a nicer than average pad or even small apartment. Then when you get more seniority you can build compressed lines with bigger gaps off.
With
that said, don't fret too much about commutes as a baseline assumption. A good line with 3-4 commutes is often much better than 1-2 commutes but getting destroyed for 2 weeks straight. If PS commuting remains that really takes the edge off and I predict it quickly won't be your biggest concern anymore. Without PS commuting I still predict it won't be as big of a concern in time. If you are committed to 17 years of commuting then you will have to learn to roll with it and the key to that is a proper psychological and analytical perspective. Commuting matters, but its probably not the apex factor you're making it out to be right now.
As for income, that is usually not leveraged nearly as much if the perfect schedule and fewest commutes are your top priorities. That doesn't mean you have to commute every couple days to make big money. But you will have to back off that approach to it a bit. For years one of the highest paid pilots at the company was a senior FO in a junior NYC category and he commuted. He did pretty much a "normal schedule" by all metrics too, albeit it with some behind the scenes setup effort on his part (bidding and working different angles). Likewise, Captain in anything is great income but you will almost always have to sacrifice some QOL to ride the seat.
There's nothing wrong with being "fat dumb and happy" in the right seat of a WB just doing the minimum with a set in stone schedule and few commutes. But you will leave millions on the table to do that. The good thing is there are lots of options to play in 17 years. You'll figure out what's best for you. It sounds like you prefer to establish QOL first and worry about income later though.
I hear 73, 7ER, 765 are now doable bids as a new hire. I have no idea what life is actually like on any of those.
765 will probably not be on the large majority of new hire drops IMO. The 73 will be and the ER will likely be. The 73 is probably has more similar glass but the ER is I believe a short course transition to the 765 so that's something to consider.
ATL seems like the obvious choice commuting from MCO. But is it?
Not necessarily. It all depends on your relative seniority in a BES (base, equipment and seat) over a given timeline. Pre-Optimizer (mid-2018 and earlier) FL-NYC was usually by far the best commute because there are so many options and NYC yielded far faster relative seniority aka "bidding power" and the trips weren't bad once you got a little seniority. ATL is on average much more senior and has many more locals who drive around the airport all day in their uniform with bags packed to be ready for anything at a moment's notice. (I'm exaggerating a little bit. But not that much).
In any case the "right answer" for base for FL pilots isn't always ATL. You will have to do some gumshoeing legwork on your end (using your entire network of friends and connections etc) to get a current feel for any given fleet and base. Pre 2018 I would have said avoid ATL but now its more viable. But also look at the other bases, especially since you mentioned other criteria.
I have a dream: Be gone 10-12 days per month - make captain pay within 5-6 years. Don't care about weekends, red-eyes, etc. (no kids at home). Biggest thing is fewer trips. Length of trips, not an issue. I'd rather do 12 days on, 20 off. Instead of 3 on, 5 off. Don't know if that's even a thing at DAL.
As I'm sure you know, many of your criteria clash. 10-12 days gone is a tough prime directive to fill until you get quite BES senior. Its dang near impossible with income and CA pay being a close second.
You probably will get CA in 5-6 years if you still want it by then. But IMO in no way will you only have 10-12 days of work and 1-2 commutes a month in anywhere near that timeframe.
But I predict you'll settle into the commuting groove more than you think you will right now. If that happens, future AE's will be your oyster. If your current 30,000ft view doesn't end up changing, then you will have to leave a lot of money (and I mean a LOT of money) on the table to write the schedule of your dreams.
So short answer if I had to pick based on the info provided would be 765 (if available, which it likely won't be) then ER then 73. NYC isn't a worse commute than ATL as the difference in the distances are functionally irrelevant. The trips, relative seniority and pad situation (and transportation considerations as appropriate) are factors you have to accept that you will have to accept. Pads and cabs (etc) are a fact of life in NYC. For your stated objectives, pads are also a fact of life in ATL as are cabs/ubers or even an "airport car".
Good luck regardless!