Originally Posted by
RNO Flyer
My crystal ball is in the shop right now, and I was hoping someone could add some insight on realistic NB upgrade times. The news about the new hire awarded 73N CA with less than a year on property is obviously an outlier. At the same time, playing around on widgetseniority, I’m showing somebody brand new now would have their earliest opportunity to go to the left seat (in this case 220 NYC) in about six years. For a “typical” upgrade at the earliest opportunity, what would a realistic timeline be? Would I be right in saying something in the 4-5 years range?
Don't want to come across as harsh, but no one knows, because "typical" was set on fire and pushed into a river like a Viking funeral.
Typical pre-covid was 1 year wonder Capts on the Maddog....the mad dog went away.
Guys from the "lost decade" took almost 20 years to get the left seat for the first time.
1,800 pilots retiring all at once hasn't been seen since pre-bankcrupcty when guys took the lump sum and ran.
Rotations being so sucky that guys would rather say right seat of a wide body instead of being narrow body Captain is part of the reason those left seats are going to people hired < 3 months ago. Whether that trend continues, who knows.
6 weeks from now, DL could absorb Endeavor and bring all the CRJ's to mainline.
What is the retirement age get moved from 65-67 a year from now?
Widget seniority is a snap shot in time and only valid right this moment.
"Typical" does not exist currently.
Having said all that, assuming the current flight path doesn't change and guys still have to retire at 65, all while taking more 220 / 320 / 330 / 350's, the yes, one should most likely be able to upgrade to a NB in NYC in less than 5 years.
Welcome to Delta!