Originally Posted by RNO Flyer

So I'm an outsider looking in, and I fully understand the A320 divestiture and early A321 divestiture will create displacements over the next two years, but how does that create the stagnation you're talking about over the long term? My understanding is that mainline Alaska currently has 217 aircraft in both fleets with ~3,000 pilots on property. That's 13.8ish pilots per aircraft. From the investor conference presentation (at https://investor.alaskaair.com/stati...a-6d4d96bfdd1c), by the end of 2023 between A320/321 divestiture and 737 acquisition there's 241 aircraft in the fleet. Assuming the crew staffing ratio stays the same, that's 3,332 pilots on property, so 10% pilot group growth in a little over a year and a half plus another 106 new pilots needed to replace mandatory retirements.

From the same presentation, the company has options to expand up to 314 mainline aircraft by 2026. I realize those are options, but the history has been to never not exercise an option. Assuming that holds out with the same crew ratio, that means a 4,341-stong pilot group by the end of 2026. In other words, 44% growth in pilots over a 4-5 year span. IF there's not a change in the dynamics that cause some FOs to bypass upgrade, would it not be reasonable to assume that a similar upgrade/pilot progression timeline for new hires now continues into the next few years?

Like I said, I'm on the outside looking in. What am I missing?