Assume that you will spend your entire career at a regional. Hint: you are not the only person who would rather skip regionals and fly for a major, and that includes 95% of the regional pilots! So once you get that regional job, you will be standing in line behind 25,000+ regional airline pilots who all have more experience than you do! And many of them have been standing in that line for 7-8+ years already!

Getting a major airline job today is like winning the lottery, except it doesn't pay as well as the lottery.

If you are well very connected in the industry, have a exceptional credentials (ie Harvard, professional / olympic athlete, etc), or flew in the military, your odds become more reasonable.