Except 18 months is nowhere near long enough for them to get the next wave 1000 hours unless there is no attrition whatever in the FO side of the house and - at least at present - there certainly is. FOs are going to ACMIs and ULCCs and even legacies with no 121 TPIC, but they are taking their 121 SIC hours with them and will not themselves become the next generation of regional CAs - EVER. And disproportionately, you are losing the senior FOs who have already sucked up 6-700 SIC hours, meaning they’ve burned through two-thirds of the shelf life of one of your 18 month CAs and they will contribute NOTHING to the next wave of CAs.

Now as smaller regionals fold, you’ll likely be able to pick up a few DECs with bonuses, guys with too few years left to do much more than break even financially going to a major who simply don’t want to move, but barring a recession that curtails the hiring wave at the majors, there simply aren’t going to be enough CAs to generate the right seat SIC hours needed for the regional industry to do anything but contract. The loss of high time FOs will kill it just as dead as the loss of CAs.