Originally Posted by
OTZeagle1
AS BOD believes they need to be the #5 airline to remain relevant. F9, G4, SY would not achieve that.
AS/B6 are the most likely because there is actually a dialogue. I have heard the only musts for B6 are NY HQ, JetBlue branding, Reconfigured board elected CEO and EVP’s. That may be a bridge to fas for AS. Those were the same holdups in 2015.
LUV and UAL can play or not play a hand. Either one could go after Alaska, JetBlue, or Spirit. AS could make a play for Spirit but I would put that at unlikely. AS also would likely need the pilots under a long term contract to be able to get the best capital rate to pull off any hostile move. Get your popcorn, it’s anyones guess. SK said he wants to be the largest airline in the world, I think he only gets there by buying Alaska, JetBlue, or Spirit. Southwest’s only play would be to protect their long term interests.
Source? Do you have personal relationships with anyone on the BOD? I'm curious how you'd have access to information that would be covered by an NDA.
They need to be #5; #6 doesn't cut it?
If B6/NK happens, does that mean that AS will put themselves up for sale to the highest bidder since they'd no longer be relevant and couldn't get to #5 without multiple mergers?
LUV flies guppies. Both B6 and NK have buses. I don't think there's enough value added for LUV to have to dump the entire fleet, pick up a bunch of guppies, and retrain entire airlines.
UAL can't go after B6; not even close to reality. I suggest you review the NYC divestitures that UAL had to do as a result of the UAL/CAL merger. And their combined market concentration was less than B6/UAL.
I doubt that either UAL or LUV have much interest in NK; not enough value added for either airline.