Originally Posted by
Ala5ka
After thinking about it this makes very little sense.
if alaska is doing the offer to acquire JetBlue…
jetblue, according to you, is not willing to negotiate headquarters outside of nyc and a maintaining of their executives. So alaska is willing to part with all of that now?
Depends. Do you mean alaska operational management team? Seriously doubt that would be their first choice, they probably really like their cushy hometown gigs.
But ultimately it's not up to them, that's what the board is for. They may have decided it's time for a paradigm shift to keep shareholder value from stagnating long-term. If you try to read the tea leaves, top management behavior hints that something is up, and that's even been observed by outsiders (media). Golden parachutes would be used to retain top leadership who *know* that their jobs are being auctioned off... any golden parachutes lately?
From a management perspective, the best way to ensure their own long-term job security is to have a "captive board", that is one where all of the personalities are beholden to the operational management in one way or another, by friendship if nothing else. How captive is the AS board right now? Lots of locals boys and girls (the kind with MBA's from lower southeast tacoma community college) would hint at captive. BT's departure hints at maybe not so captive.
Originally Posted by
Ala5ka
if JetBlue is going to attempt to acquire as.. why go through all the trouble to pretend to acquire spirit.
They would not. If there's any truth to B6 M&A rumors it's either a hostile move by AS, or a mutual merger discussion... until they get engaged and married, it's OK for B6 to date others to explore options. It's even been hypothesized that B6 would prefer AS, but they need to do *something* soon so they moved on NK... that will either make AS jealous (afraid) forcing to offer better terms or, failing that, B6 gets their merger and ups their weight class. If the let the NK/F9 thing get past V1, then one of their options is closed for good.
Originally Posted by
Ala5ka
makes no sense. A three way linkup between as/JetBlue/spirit would never be approved. JetBlue/spirit likely will never be approved. Alaska has a better shot of doj approval..but based on JetBlue wants and how little alaska likes to budge on their brand identity/ control, I don’t ever see a merger happening (even though route structure wise it makes the most sense).
Three-way, no way. Any other combination might be possible. The Party will make some appropriate noises to appease the revolutionary masses, but it's going to be hard to just say no to a merger which doesn't get anywhere near the big-three in size... why should the gov guarantee that only AA/DL/UA get to enjoy that economy of scale. Yes different business models and route structures, but still. Also... do airlines make political contributions? I think they do. This is why.
Originally Posted by
Ala5ka
obviously JetBlue and spirit merged probably is a death blow to alaska.. so maybe in light of this they are willing to give up their “non-negotiable” items. That just doesn’t strike me as the alaska way though
B6+NK is still not a Pac NW or even west coast player... but it's one more player in the next higher weight class, who would likely encroach before too long.
If I were on the board, I'd be worried about getting outclassed by everybody else and eventual shrinkage and stock collapse.
A B6/AS merger would preserve what they have, open new horizons, and grant larger economy of scale. As well as moving up into a competitive weight class.
A sale to SWA would simply be cashing out the brand, culture, and HQ for a premium share price.