Originally Posted by ShyGuy

I'm with EJ on this one. Yes we're doing a vote but this is just going through the motions, a procedure that is required to be completed. But nothing is going to change. Do you really think the NMB is going to declare an impasse for any airline right now with multiple quarters of quarter+ billion dollar losses? To stick it to management and favor labor in this barely post Covid environment? And remind me again who filed for NMB negotiations in the first place, the company or ALPA? Since the company did, do you truly believe that they would have pursued that route if they had any inkling that it would lead to an impasse declaration within 6-9 months? Or is it likely that they thought this out thoroughly studied very well, knowing nothing would happen for a looong time?


To be honest, I get the disappointment. I'd been fed this line that attrition was going to bring them to their knees. I was led to believe we had leverage going forward. Turns out, we really didn't. Not only did they stall negotiations, but they've gone ahead and cut capacity for the entire year. I read the nerds on airliners.net who actually study flight schedule changes, and this is the kind of stuff I see:

"Staffing issues continue to plague AS, reflected in this weekend's summer schedule update.

For example at PDX, PDX-ANC down to just 1x daily, PDX-ABQ/AUS reduced to 4x weekly. PDX-MSP reduced to 5x weekly. PDX-DAL/KOA/LIH/PSP all gone. All PDX-Montana routes (BIL/BZN/FCA/MSO) are now only operating on Saturdays. Long list of other cuts as well. I'll be here all day if I list them all out."

"The planned second daily summer frequency on CMH-SEA is gone after May, back to 1x daily."

"I'm seeing drastic cuts in both June and July."




How many millions do you think these cancellations and capacity cuts cost? I think we can agree that cutting capacity by ~2-3% results in millions of lost revenue and as a result, lost profits. Which brings the point I made in the previous post, as long as the formula still holds true then I don't see us going anywhere. Cost of attrition + cost of pilot training + cost of over-hiring pilots + cost of capacity cuts, loss of profits < cost of new ALPA pilot contract.

Why did Sun Country get a new contract? It was simple, they lost something like 180 of their total 400 pilots in about one year. For that formula, the cost equation finally flipped and so they got their new contract. Not because Sunny management decided they love their pilots, is just boiled down to the math.




If my post was TL;DR then sum it up with:

"It's nothing personal - it's just business."