Have to disagree... Atlas is by definition a "Scheduled Carrier" with a minority of its fleet dedicated to sub-Service/ACMI/CMI
Atlas already leads FedEx in Available Ton Miles (ATM's) and nearly double that of UPS dating all the way back in 2019 and has grown substantially since then.
DOT Form 41 Data:
Atlas (Polar & Southern) : 24.5 BILLION Ton Miles
FedEx (Express): 22.3 Billion Ton Miles
UPS (Airlines): 13.8 Billion Ton Miles
Productivity per pilot of Atlas far exceeds that of any other carrier
Atlas 12,048,000 Average Ton Miles flown for the year 2019
FedEx 4,916,000 Average Ton Miles
UPS 4,865,000 Average Ton Miles
For 2020 (Atlas Investor Slides (SEC Data))
Atlas/Polar/Southern flew a combined 344,800 Block hours
Annual Revenue growth 2020 (SEC Filings)
Atlas/Polar/Southern: 17.8%
UPS: 14.2%
FedEx 9.2%
Pre-Tax Profit (SEC Filings)
Atlas/Polar/Southern: 14.2%
UPS 11.1%
FedEx 6.3%
Fuel remains a reimbursed cost through Fuel Surcharges accessed for each kg flown in slot controlled airports, so fuel will continue to be of little concern as prices fluctuate.
More than 65% of Atlas/Polar/Southern flying is on company owned slot/route authority. DHL under a block space agreement has access to that capacity but DOES NOT OWN IT or have operational control of any slot/route authority.
More than 85% of Actual Ton Miles are flown on the 747/777 aircraft where margins are the greatest with a direct return to Atlas on Revenues and Profits.
Atlas/Polar have additional slot capacity coming which is the reason for the recent acquisition of the 747-8/777 aircraft from Boeing.
Opinion:
The 737 remains a loss leader fleet, no Atlas/Polar/Southern freight is moved on those fleets and they remain solely ACMI/CMI lift.
The 767 Fleet has a large component dedicated to Amazon, again relatively low margin flying much like the 737.
However the balance of the 767 fleet is in fact flying scheduled service, and that list of aircraft are growing to accommodate new Scheduled service to South America, Europe, and possibly intra-Asia.
The 777, 747-8/400F are all primarily scheduled service with a few exceptions for CMI airframes. There are a few aircraft used for ACMI/Charter works however that lift has almost entirely been re-dedicated to supporting the IATA Exempt route airports to boost capacity where slots previously restricted access.
Much of the Kalitta flying will begin to wind down as the IATA Covid exemptions begin to subside later in 2022. Ghost flights and non-scheduled service will once again require strict adherence to route authority holders assigned slots/schedules. Atlas/Polar/Southern are positioned to maximize this capacity growth on these restricted segments with their existing route structures and future expansion slots.
https://www.iata.org/en/policy/slots/covid-19-slots/