Originally Posted by
Excargodog
I agree. My post was in response to the assertion that the airlines were CAUSING the military pilot shortfall.
There are a variety of things causing the overall shortfall. Just the demise of general aviation for example. CFIs need more people to teach than just other aspiring CFIs (and eventual ATPs) but with 172s going for $400k and a Cirrus going for $750k, general aviation has become an exceedingly expensive hobby.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericteg...of-the-market/
Most trainers are going to burn 7-8 gallons per hour and at $7 a gallon for avgas 1000 hours of time in anything is going to cost $50k in fuel alone. Add in insurance, Mx, tie down/hangar, initial instruction, BFRs, and it starts to add up to real money. And that’s for a simple trainer. Anything multi engine and it starts to get much worse.
Well, not ANYTHING maybe:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colomb...2007-05-12.jpg
but damn near anything.
Battery powered light ASEL trainers are available. Expensive up front I'm sure, but the fuel and mx costs will be much lower so there's an ROI if you plan on putting a lot of hours on them, which would be the whole point.
Regionals already hire at 25 ME hours. In fairness the old standard of 300-500 ME hours isn't really about OEI handling, it's more about experience with complexity and speed. For OEI experience, better to just do it in the sim. Out of my hundreds of ME hours prior to 121 I never had an engine out, and twins flew just like an ASEL.
Current requirements for complex/TAA time for the CPL are also pretty minimal.
Cost could be offset by offering three paths for post-CPL time building. Everything up to CPL would be sponsored...
1) Paid to burn holes in the sky for 1500. Incurs the longest payback obligation, no CFI ratings required. Easy.
2) Paid to teach, medium-duration obligation, CFI ratings provided by the sponsor.
3) DIY. Get your sponsored CPL, them go build time on your own any way you like. Shortest obligation, and you're allowed say two years before you need to be at R-ATP mins and start work.
Considering they pay major FO's $200K+ year in and year out, spending $100k to create a new pilot who is obligated for say five years is not a real economic stretch. The problem is that they're in denial and always assumed the problem would fix itself, or somebody would fix it for them.
Also the rapid, mass retirements reduce the average longevity on narrowbody fleets, so there's some silver lining there. That doesn't apply much to WB's since almost all CA's and most FO's are probably maxed out at 12 years.