My worthless two cents, I think management (like most of America) has figured out that we are headed for a recession next year. Yes, flying looks great right now and bookings are high but I really believe these numbers are skewed because they represent the pent up demand from people who have been locked down and not vacationed or seen family since 2020. We are now maskless and they are going guns blazing. This is going to wear off.

Putin isn't going to admit defeat, Ukraine isn't going to give up, which means that war is going to be protracted. Oil, gas, energy costs will continue to be volatile. China continues to pursue a 0 Covid policy and lockdowns happen at the first inkling of infections spreading. Factories, ports, you name it, it gets locked down. Supply chain issues are going to persist because of these policies and the fact that literally everything here comes from Asia. And not to mention the trillions we printed and handed out like candy. These are the supply side issues which are not letting up. Nothing the Fed can do changes the supply side issues. It was never "transitory" inflation.

So then we have demand. Pent up demand with people spending money, traveling, buying tickets, going out, etc. Maybe I'll be wrong (and I truly hope I am), but I think it's only a matter of time later this year people reverse that. Less spending, less buying. The self-fulfilling prophecy of "it's too expensive now, I'll just wait 6-12 months when it'll be cheaper." That will lead to lower demand, lower spending, and our economic output will drop. People are facing sustained inflated prices for literally everything, their grocery bill, gasoline, cars, furniture, housing, utilities, you name it, it's gone up. 1st Q negative GDP was a hint of things to come. Analysts expected a 1% gain. It actually was a -1.4% loss. We'll probably be okay for 2nd and 3rd quarter because of the aforementioned pent up demand. But after that, I can see it slowing. The definition of a recession is "a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters." Just two quarters is all it takes. I think we'll be there next year. The pandemic taught people that when you get down to it, they really don't have to fly. In a stagflation economy, airplane tickets are luxuries that can probably wait for a later time.

It's coming. Don't think it'll be "the big one" but it certainly will be noticeable.