Originally Posted by
OOfff
nobody will. If a system is equally safe with a single pilot as with two, there’s no reason to keep a single pilot because the safety is provided by autonomy, not by the pilot.
there’s a concept called metastability in physics and math (among others) that might be used as a metaphor here. Imagine a graph with risk on the y-axis and number of pilots (decreasing left to right) on the x-axis.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta...-stability.svg
There’s no condition in which two pilots plus AI will be less safe than one pilot plus AI. So the get from two pilots plus AI to the “promised land” of removing humans from the loop, you have to go directly to zero pilots. Otherwise you end up on the hill.
I've said as much before. Hypothetical autonomous-capable airplanes will initially be manned by two pilots and that will have to persist for years while enough operational data is gathered (total SWAG, ten years per type). At that point you could go to zero, but politics and public opininion will almost certainly mandate single pilot for a good while after that. Just in case.
Only thing you might see near/mid term is single-pilot cruise on some long-haul ops. IMO they'd need an FA up front just to call for help and open the door in case the on-duty pilot is incap. Doubt the FAA will go for it but other countries might.