Originally Posted by
BoilerUP
A shortage of pilots at a particular price point does not represent a scarcity of pilots at any price point.
Have we already forgotten the thousands of pilots who left the career early two years ago, along with the likely thousands of others who abandoned training because of those circumstances?
Economics 101. There is a certain amount of elasticity, but it is not infinite. If you boost wages a bunch, in the short term, you get more pilots to hire.
But if you boost wages to ridiculously high rates, at least in the short term, you reach a point of diminishing return. Many people who have a pilots license do not want or can not get a position flying a part 121, no matter how hire the rate is.
It takes time to get more interested, and get qualified, to add to the pool.
Remember after the lost decade, pilots on the sidelines in their 40s and 50s came back. That pool started drying up, after a couple of years. It was not infinite. Same with the pool they are now going after. It is elastic, but not infinitely elastic, no matter how high the pay goes. The only debate is how elastic the pool of pilots is. Stated differently, how deep is the pool, before the interested and hire-able end of the pool runs dry.