Depends on where you go. Fractionals and cargo are relatively unaffected by what is going on. Pax airlines on the other hand are pretty volatile. It's hard to say. Like you said, it's a gamble.

Best thing would be to try and get a guard or reserve gig so you at least have the military to fall back on, without the commitments of AD. Trust me, there are times it is nice to have one or the other as a backup. Just my .02.