I think it all depends on the level of risk you are willing to take as well as your current qualifications -- lots of TT, PIC, IP/EP, etc and you are gonna be very competitive. Also, keep in mind that seniority is everything, so the sooner you get on someplace, the better in terms of seniority. For example, I know several people who went to NetJets a couple years ago and because of the way the contract was written at the time, were able to upgrade within months of being hired. Now everyone going there is going to wait years to upgrade. It's all a matter of timing and again the level of risk you are willing to accept.

The batteries in my crystal ball have died again , but my feeling is that the current situation is going to end up being a hiccup in the big picture. Ever with the age 65 rule, there are still going to be a lot of retirements over the next decade, so even with slight reductions in domestic capacity (but increases in international capacity), the airlines are still going to need pilots to maintain staffing levels. Hiring may slow down in the short term and maybe not as many people will be hired this year as predicted, but looking at the overall numbers, additional pilots are still going to be needed sooner than later.

Despite every terrible thing that came out of 9/11, it forced the airlines to become more lean and mean in their operations and finally got rid of the pre-deregulation days mentality in which bloat was acceptable. So I think the airlines of today are much better equipped to respond to down turns without resorting to the dreaded "F" word.

My predictions are about as worthless as anyone else's. However, since we're all nuts to be in this crazy industry anyways, instead of being miserable about everything, I say have fun and enjoy the ride!