- Ukraine is the second-largest nation in Europe. Nearly half of Europe's gas comes from, or through, Ukraine. Oil & Gas are global commodities.
- Direct payments to poor families began under Trump and were continued by Biden & Congress approved both rounds from both administrations.
- Trump's "America First" tariffs are a tax on us and a disruption to the global supply chain, especially to American manufacturers. Biden has kept nearly all of Trump's tariffs. The scarcity of goods makes prices higher.
- Cheap interest rates created a housing bubble again.
It is about a perfect storm for inflation. The Fed is, and should be, independent of the President. We would not like politicians manipulating the dollar for short-term gain, although I'd not say the firewall is perfect, it should be there. The Fed has done much more than just raise interest rates, the Fed has mostly closed the "window" by which banks and insurers have been getting free funds to speculate in the market. The loss of the banks and insurers using Fed money has been responsible for much of the decline of the equity markets and I am surprised more media outlets have not reported that fact to the public. In sum, the Federal Deficit is down, shrunk by around $2 trillion. Financial conservatives and dollar hawks should be cheering, but the personal pain of seeing a quarter of their 401K's evaporate has tampered enthusiasm for deficit reduction. Biden is about as unlucky as any politician could possibly be and his administration has been slow, too conservative, in its reactions.
January 6th was much more serious than most people treat it. We came down to maybe a forty-foot space: The distance between the Proud Boys who stated they would have killed Mike Pence had they captured him. In the weeks that followed almost everyone disavowed "the big lie." Then as politicians figure out their base really liked "the big lie" they started to find ways to incorporate their base's demands so that they would not kill their own political ambitions on the hill of honesty or rule of law.
The parallels between America-first faith-based fascism and the rise of the NAZI movement are both striking and terrifying. Germans in the Weimar Republic grew increasingly frustrated with inflation; mad at foreigners, directing their antipathy at immigrants. Hitler rose in popularity by giving voice to these grievances, tried to pull off a putsch and after failing got banned from Twitter. No seriously, he got banned from public speeches. After the ban was lifted Hitler came back stronger than ever. The stock market crash of 1929 had the knock-on effect of freezing German capital markets. The NAZIs were elected to office. Then they just kept those offices. Many Americans were supportive of their cause including many churches in the United States.
We are approaching a perfect storm of economic transition. Long term, the rise of alternative energy supplies will employ many more Americans in better jobs than our pump and burn operations today. Long term I am an optimist.
But I am not sure we will keep our democracy. I think keeping "we the people" in charge hinges on whether rule-of-law conservatives can take back the Republican party. The politics of personality and frustration with the bureaucrats are forces too strong to hold out against. The grievances are too strong. We need an Eisenhower and I'd take a Ronald Reagan. We need a leader with both respect for law and rhetorical ability.
Authoritarian regimes tend to be corrupt and inefficient. We might be at the point where we figure out what our lives are going to be like in the post-Democratic United States.