Originally Posted by
Margaritaville
Hold on. You have no doubt Delta will furlough in the next 2 years? I think any industry watcher would agree that Delta is in better financial shape than any of the other legacy airlines. So if Delta collapses, then you're predicting the collapse of the entire industry? I suppose that means United goes bankrupt and American goes under?
The internet and this site have always been full of know it all chicken little types. Another constant is that pilots, despite their big talk, are terrible financial managers/planners. The coming recession is going to be bad, but I don't see the global financial system collapsing and plunging us into the 1930s. There's too many safeguards in place. I don't even see it being as bad as 2008 when the over leveraged banks went belly up.
These dark posts remind me of mid 2020 when the same people were predicting a 10 year depression and legacy airlines half their current size 5 years from now. They were wrong then too.
I'll issue a prediction. There will be a slowdown and hiring may pause for a while. Nobody is going to get furloughed, not even at American. The sky is not falling because eventually people will start flying again. The demand will always be there and retirements will continue. If the airlines furlough, they've put wheels in motion they won't be able to reverse quickly... again. I think they learned that lesson after the 'rona.
Hit me up in 2 years, just because airlines furlough doesn't mean they collapse. Have you been around more than 5 years in this industry? It has always been hire until you furlough, furlough until you hire. Oil prices aren't going back down, inflation isn't going away, the Feds will throw in the towel in just a matter of months. Their game right now is all talk. There is no way out of the mess we are in, the government spent like money was limitless for the past two decades. When the government raises taxes 10%, cuts spending by 20% and their debt bill goes up by 20% what do you think is going to happen to our economy? You think people are going to have money to fly? You don't think corporations are going to cut back on flying? What we were doing was unsustainable before Covid, now it is just off the charts (literally).
I'm currently investing 90% in commodities - putting my money where my mouth is. How do you see this mess ending? Just a "soft landing" to 1% growth and 2% inflation? Not happening. Do you think the government is going to cut entitlements? Cut military spending? It won't happen until the market forces it and everyday they wait it makes the end game more ugly.