Originally Posted by
Str8 Cash Homie
Well.. we currently have 2,417 Captains. So if we continue with 800 gone every 6 months we’ll be out of Captains in 1 1/2 years.
one needn’t be “out of” CAs for it to adversely effect flying. That’s why EAS and other cities are being dropped from current flying. But take your current numbers, 2417 CAs out of a seniority list of 5230. You have 46% of your pilots as CAs. That’s not enough. You need MORE CAs than FOs because CAs get more vacation, have more sick time, generally get more ‘soft’ time, etc. Even neglecting those issues, the most a cadre of 2417 CAs can legally fly in a year is 2,417,000 block hours (and they aren’t going to actually come near that) but you would have to spread that over the 2813 FOs so they would only be (theoretical best case) be flying 860 hours a year ( and it would actually be less in reality).
And if all the FOs stuck around, that might even be enough, but every FO that leaves before BOTH UPGRADING AND FLYING 1000 hours as a CA means your FOs are getting more junior and fewer and fewer will be upgrade eligible.
It’s a death spiral. And yeah, you might be able to string it out longer if you can get enough DECs, but your only real hope is a recession.