Originally Posted by
Sunvox
Clearly you are the master of internet diatribes, and you obviously have read some airline history and labor law books, but I'm afraid, in my opinion, you 100% did not address my point. Brings to mind the term: Dunning Kruger Effect. Air Force guys always think they're the smart one
What I meant by your "thesis" is to say it is your opinion that because UALPA did not apply for mediation they are years away from applying pressure on UAL and therefore years away from a contract. I disagree for the reasons I explained above, but I tell you what. If UAL doesn't have a signed TA within 18 months of the current TA being voted down I will donate a $100 to the charity of your choice, or conversely you can just quote this post and send me an "I told you so" if I'm wrong.
Well, it seems you have also misunderstood what I'm trying to say.
The leverage available via the RLA is not the only source of leverage. I would never claim that. But I would say, in general, it is the strongest leverage available to labor. There may be particular issues at particular times that offer more leverage for a certain period of time to labor than being able to wield the credible threat of a strike. But, in general, over time, it is the most powerful weapon in labor's arsenal. That's not just my opinion. There are many folks out there a lot smarter than myself who hold that belief.
Can you get a TA without leveraging the RLA? Yes, of course. You already did. Is it a quality TA? Some United guys seem to think so, but not many.
Will you be able to get another TA within 18 months without leveraging the RLA? Of course you can.
Will it get ratified? It seems there's a decent chance of that if the pot is sweetened a little bit, especially in light of the fact that some of your guys are willing to vote yes even for your current TA. Hopefully, in the next 18 months, in addition to the leverage you already have, other pilot groups like Delta will ratify significantly better contracts that United can pattern bargain off of to generate a better TA.
My "thesis" is not that you won't be able to get a ratifiable TA within the next 18 months. But I wouldn't define a ratified contract within X number of months as the mark of the best possible deal that is achievable.
Whatever deal you get, inside or outside of 18 months, will almost certainly be sweeter if RLA leverage is applied and would have been sweeter still if your current MEC/NC had filed for mediation years ago.
It doesn't seem like the pilot shortage was very threatening in Kirby's mind given the TA that resulted. Kirby doesn't seem to have believed that United pilots needed a substantially better contract in order to recruit enough pilots to fuel his "aggressive growth plan." On that issue, he apparently thought this TA is good enough.
It does seem like he believes the training center is a critical issue, so he targeted that pain point very specifically in the TA and your MEC/NC went along with it. Maybe the training center issue can be better leveraged in the future.
Whatever TA that is produced going forward is more likely to be the best possible TA if your MEC and NC appear in Kirby's eyes to be willing, if necessary to achieve their goals, to go as far as is required to win back everything that has been lost since the Chapter 11 concessions and then some.
Maybe it will be possible to create that kind of fear in Kirby by filing for mediation as soon as is reasonable and then perhaps staging massive and frequent pickets and conducting a strike authorization vote that turns out like Alaska's did in May. Kirby will then have all of that to deal with in addition to the leverage that you currently possess. Maybe Kirby will think to himself as a result, "If I don't give these guys what they want sooner rather than later, I'm going to end up having to give them what they want in the end anyway because they're obviously serious about taking this to the mat. So. I might as well give it to them now so we avoid all the unpleasantness to come later if I don't." That's possible.
But even if that occurs, I'd say whatever TA that results will likely have been better if mediation had been filed for sooner by the current MEC/NC rather than later by the next MEC/NC because the credible threat of passengers booking away in the face of a looming strike would have been that much more real to Kirby.
Going forward, an aggressive and smart MEC/NC can make up for a lot of where the current MEC and NC have fallen short. But it will be difficult for them to completely unf!!k what the current MEC/NC did (or rather, didn't do).
So, like I said before, bottom line, TLDR, my "thesis" is simply that it's usually better to file for mediation earlier rather than later because, in general, the realistic threat of legal self help is the most powerful leverage labor has access to. Under the RLA, a union can't just file for mediation and then immediately have access to the full weight of the leverage the RLA affords. That kind of leverage develops only with time. To be clear, a union doesn't have to wait years after filing for mediation to have some leverage under the RLA. But the full force of RLA leverage requires years after entering mediation to have access to it.