If the economy goes into a recession and the airline industry dips along with it, that will probably have an impact on our negotiations. However, I've read several analyses in the last several weeks predicting only a minor recession. If the recession is only minor (big if), that doesn't necessarily mean it would have a large effect on the pilot shortage issue and whatever leverage we have as a result of it.

It is baffling to me that we haven't already filed for mediation. It is free to file, contains almost no downside, and only adds to whatever leverage we already possess. It is also baffling to me that we would delay any further at all filing for mediation since "time in mediation" is a crucial metric in the NMB's calculus to determine if a release is warranted. "Time in negotiations," in contrast, is rarely mentioned in RLA court opinions involving the question of whether or not the NMB has held a dispute in mediation too long.

While we do begin to build some leverage upon filing for mediation, IMO, leverage under the RLA looks something like an exponential growth curve: early growth is slow and near-zero while later growth is extremely rapid. In 2010, the NMB reported that for "FY 2004 – 08 the average length for a case in mediation was 758 calendar days." That includes cases still in mediation which hadn't been released yet and would ultimately end up settling before a release. A 2008 legal analysis found that the average length of airline negotiations was steadily increasing. I'm pretty sure we're all aware that trend hasn't ended. It's difficult to find enough specific information on enough disputes to determine a meaningful average for the length of "time in mediation" for cases where a release occurred. However, each dispute that goes to a PEB generates a report that details that information. These reports can give us some insight. The most recent dispute to go to a PEB occurred in 2015 involved railroad unions. It spent about 15 months in mediation before arbitration was proffered. The most recent airline PEB occurred in 2001. It involved the mechanics at UAL. That dispute had spent 14 months in mediation before arbitration was proffered. The most recent airline pilot dispute to go a PEB was the famous 1997 APA dispute. It spent 12 months in mediation before being released.

All of the above information, including information on the railroad cases, is relevant because the courts have more than once explained that an important factor in determining whether or not is is reasonable for the NMB to continue holding a case in mediation is the length of "time in mediation" of all cases handled by the NMB, not just airline cases. For example, in 2005, a US district court judge stated, "it is appropriate for a court to compare the time in mediation in the case at bar with the time in mediation in other Railway Labor Act disputes. Additionally, 'even if the period in mediation has exceeded the norm, this does not mean that there has been patent bad faith on the part of the [NMB].' . . . 'Only in the most extreme circumstances will a court find a period to be completely and patently unreasonable so as to indicate patent official bad faith.' (holding that the court could not require the NMB to proffer arbitration even when the amount of time spent in mediation was more than customary)."

So. I'm not sure things will begin start to move along anytime very soon after filing for mediation simply by virtue of filing for mediation. However, that doesn't mean SWAPA can't try to accelerate the process by creating a real fear in Jordan's mind that SWAPA is committed to taking the process all the way to the mat.

IMO, ways that SWAPA could help create that fear include staging massive and frequent pickets and conducting a strike authorization vote that turns out like Alaska's did in May. Jordan will then have all of that to deal with in addition to the leverage that we currently possess in the form of the pilot shortage. The goal would be to create a create a credible threat in Jordan's estimation that, if he doesn't agree to SWAPA's contractual proposal, he faces a very real future of an enormous surge of passengers booking away from SWA as a possible work stoppage or interruption approaches.

Maybe Jordan will think to himself as a result, "If I don't give these guys what they want sooner rather than later, I'm going to end up having to give them what they want in the end anyway because they're obviously serious about taking this all the way. So. I might as well give it to them now so we avoid all the unpleasantness to come later if I don't." That's possible. I don't know how likely it is, but it's possible that we could essentially press fast-forward on the development of leverage under the RLA by aggressively attempting to create for Jordan an inkling of the apocalyptic future that surely awaits him if he dithers. Regardless, though, all of the above would be more easily accomplished by filing for mediation earlier. It would also require our pilot group to pass the organized labor marshmallow test which has proven difficult for us in the past.