Conducting a strike authorization vote before entering mediation is putting the cart before the horse. From the time we enter mediation until a release to self help might be a realistic possibility is, as Whack said, two to three years.

Without real RLA education (it would need to be much more in depth than explaining the RLA flow chart), most of this pilot group would vote against a strike authorization right now because they would think that it would mean SWAPA is imminently planning on going on strike. A strike authorization vote sans meaningful RLA education would only scare the crap out of this pilot group. They would overwhelmingly vote it down IMO. They don’t get that a strike authorization vote shortly after filing for mediation is all about sending a message to management rather than actually going on strike any time soon.

Most of this pilot group has trouble distinguishing between RLA mediation and arbitration. They think mediation needs to be avoided rather than a necessary evil in order to lay hold of labor’s strongest leverage: the credible threat of passengers en masse booking away from an airline in the face of a looming work shut down or interruption. They think the mediator can hold us in mediation forever. They think the president can permanently shut down a strike. And they think the possibility of congressional intervention after a PEB means it is pointless to even attempt to leverage the RLA.