I’m a realist. Historically context shows pilots get a new contract based on airlines’ health what the economy is doing. 2019, strong economy, but zero problems with hiring and attrition, no real pressure to sign a new deal. 2020 pandemic rolls around. New contract goes out window as the focus goes to saving jobs via EIL, etc. 2021 recovery time but airlines still bleeding billions. 2022 finally seems to have turned the corner and for the first time in history, there’s massive hiring at every airline, legacy/major/regional and they can’t seem to fill enough pilots in class on time for the schedule they want to fly. A time when one could apply to the big 3 and blindly get a call in 1-2 months out of the blue. 2022 accelerates attrition to record highs at the non big 3 legacy airlines, AS included. UA pilots got a TA, someone at AS leaked pay rates online that apparently weren’t even real, some commented that’s what a REAL airline looks like, but then scurried back to their corners once it became known that UA pilots were absolutely fuming and steaming at their new pile of a heap TA.

But here we are, record amounts of attrition and a general realization by the managements of JetBlue/AS/F9/NK that the market of pilots available are pursuing the big 3, and that they have to step up to the plate to compete on pilot talent. The JetBlue CFO made a comment on an investor call that the market rates of pilots on narrowbody will most likely converge in order to compete with the big 3. They realize it’s the only way to keep someone at the #4-8 carriers instead of the big 3. This is why you’ve now seen more action in the past 2 months than you have in the past 3 years. Real work is being done to get a TA across the table, finally.

So what’s next? If I was betting in Vegas with my own money, I’d say we’ll have a TA to vote on before the year is over. If I was betting in Vegas with somebody else’s money, I’d say maybe they delay just enough into next year when we get hit by the effects of a full blown recession, slowed consumer spending, reduced air travel demand, hiring and attrition slowing at all airlines, and a “sorry guys but these are tough times” again. I’d put it at a 60-40 for chances of these two scenarios. The optimistic side of me says scenario 1 plays out and we get a TA to vote on before the year is over. But it’s the airline industry, anything goes.