Originally Posted by
JustAsking
So not to be argumentative, pre COVID people were talking 7-9 years to FLOW or get to majors, but the most recent CBA has a 5 year expectation actually written into the language (although they could still delay flow but would have to give 20 yr CA pay during delay). How do you see that whole thing working out? It effectively eliminated 15 yrs of the CA pay band. Just a guess, but maybe flow will actually be around 5 years (or maybe they will bump to 20 yr pay and give a seniority number?)
If someone selects “no” to flow at their wholly owned, they don’t get the top pay scale, so with the $100k flow bonus there’s really not a lost earnings by not going to AA.
Listening to the latest earnings call, management expects WO staffing to be be full within 2 years ending the need for the pay scale escalation. At that point someone will be making what they’d make as an FO at AA without the 16% DC.
AA isn’t making money on their flying, it’s all the co-branded credit cards making profits so if demand shrinks 10% they’ll cut mainline flying by 10% (IIRC that’s the # management threw out in the Q&A). That’s 1500 pilots, or 18 months of retirements that wouldn’t be needed so I’d they don’t furlough or offer early outs, they could just stop hiring for 18 months. If age 67 passes they could stop hiring for 36 months during a period of reduced demand.
The last 18 months AA stopped hiring, things were pretty miserable at the WO, which is why so many pilots left in 2021/2022. With age 67, the ability to leave the WO will be stifled as everywhere else has reduced hiring needs as well.