BeatNavy

I’ll also add that I’m not sure how attrition plays into those numbers. My guess is you gotta take the total EOY list size (target pilots + offline pilots) and subtract the attrition to get the real EOY list size. Once these vacancies are bid, they can’t just give out that vacancy to someone else. The surplus vacancies are what is used for newhires. But say (these are arbitrary numbers ahead for the sake of discussion) there are 750 target JFK 320 CAs, there are 700 now, 50 people get that award in this bid, then one quits, the actual number of JFK320CAs by end of next year is 749. They can’t just give that seat to someone else. Same I think is true on the FO side. If 400 people quit between now and EOY 2023, they can’t just arbitrarily hand out those newly created vacancies to newhires. The vacancies for newhires has to come from unbid positions. I think this is why we see a ton of total vacancies (what was it, like 1,000?), but only 189 new CA positions. They might fill all of them, but if 300-400 quit, the vacancies/positions they occupied don’t get recycled to other newhires upon someone’s resignation.

I believe PVBM knows age 65 retirements and takes that into account (but not other attrition), as evidenced by the 189 vs 235 number for CA positions depending on whether you take EOY22 numbers vs EOY23 numbers (+189 CA), or do what flyby did and take the active pilots at the beginning of the 2023 bid and subtract that from the EOY23 numbers (235). The only explanation I can come up with for that difference is there are about that many planned retirements in 2023.