And the die hards who live in the OG bases (the ones they intend to keep) aren't going anywhere. Most of the people who would flee are new and are in the small bases. The top 10% in the small bases, allegiant lifers, will just pick a new base. They'll have no problem keeping about 600 pilots on property. Going forward, they'll have no problem hiring the middle aged guys who have had a sucky career or mid life career changers who live in a base and want to work for an airline but don't want to travel or move. When the regionals collapse, there's a lot of older regional lifers who are going to be looking for a new gig. They may think they'll get a mainline staple, but they won't. Then they'll come here.

A few years ago the interview process was heavily geared toward weeding out ladder climbers. They did a really good job of figuring out who was looking to stay here and who was just going to get a type and jump ship. During the big growth phase after 2014 and the recent pilot shortage, a lot of that just went away, and they hired a bunch of younger guys who obviously weren't planning one retiring here, but at least they kept the seat warm. I see the company going back to the old hiring practices of hiring those who clearly want to be here, have few other options, and plan to stay.