Originally Posted by LonesomeSky

It's time to think about payrates in a whole new way. This pilot shortage has taken all conventional wisdom up a dark alley, beaten it within an inch of its life, and stole its wallet.

Let me explain how the airline industry works 2022 to 2027...

Passenger demand will outstrip airline capacity. Airlines will have pricing power unlike we've seen since deregulation. Airlines that have trained crews will make money, a lot of money. Airlines that don't have enough trained crews will lose money.

Payrates that look obscene and unreasonable could very well make economic sense to large carriers. When you spread $500 per hour across 170 passengers, it's only a few bucks per person. In an environment where there are not enough seats moving between cites, costumers will have no choice but to pay up. I'm guessing that the airlines will make more off of this pilot shortage than the pilots by many orders of magnitude. They can afford to pay us but don't expect management to tell you exactly how much you're worth to them in this strange new world. This is every corporation's dream scenario: a restricted supply environment. And, they didn't even need to cheat by doing price and capacity collusion. File the pilot shortage under sh$t happens, but don't forget that we pilots are the PIN number to management's free money ATM. Get your fair share of the prize.

Capitalism, for all its ability to distribute wealth and reward productivity, has one major bug, it often produces extreme and unpredictable outcomes. This pilot shortage will become an economic case study that's written about in every Econ 101 text. We need to recognize our worth and grab that cash while we can. It's only a matter of time until the feds lower requirements and the flight schools start pumping out 250 hour wannabe millionaires.

In terms of our new Alaska contract, we need to get paid more than any other narrow body operator. Our career needs to be competitive with a United career. In the short run, it's essential for management to meet the moment. It's in their best interests to make alaska the best place to work. We could grow into the pilot shortage and gobble up market share simply because we have planes and pilots to fly them. That's the new secret sauce.




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