Originally Posted by Mooner

Let’s have a little fun and see who has predictive super powers. Let’s keep it simple by limiting our prediction to a few simple metrics:

1. Timeline - Date of TA
2. Duration
3. Ratified or rejected
4. No concessions, a few concessions but offset with gains, or net concessionary.
5. Compensation - Total compounded gain in pay rates, retro/signing bonus, lags/leads/matches inflation.

I’ll start with my prediction.

1. We get a Christmas surprise after a largely symbolic strike vote of 99.2% in early November. TA announced by Dec 7th, MEC votes to endorse the TA and announces a 60 day ratification window.

2. 5 year duration, new amendable date Jan 1 2025.

3. TA is ratified

4. Few concessions offset with other gains, net non-concessionary.

5. 3%, 3%, 9%, 5%, 5%. 100% retro (compounded 15.6% earnings for 2020-2022). This ends up being equivalent to recent profit sharing checks prior to 2020. Total compounded increase of 27.5% over duration.

6. On a compounded basis, contract marginally leads (<1%) inflation from 2020-2022, leads (>1%) inflation in 2023-24.

Bonus prediction: TA passes 78-22.