I'm sure the company has a plan B, C, D, E, and F.


Plan B could be as simple as slow roll the MAX-10. Management at United did this with our order book during the pandemic. I think we also did this with the 777 RTS. The 737 MAX was slated to come back online in early summer 2020, but we really didn't start flying them until If I remember correctly, spring 2021. I think if the overseas demand for the 777 flying was available, UAL management would have pushed harder on a faster timeline to get these AC flying.


Be prepared for "the stick" in the likely scenario that TA2 fails. We haven't seen it yet, but if you've studied history or lived through it, the stick can very easily be to start parking older 737s, older 319/320s, and CONUS 757s. It will be a "threat" at first, but when our NC doesn't budge, they might start parking. It could be a bluff like what happened at DL.


Plan C can be to push merely slow delivery of these 100+ A/C per year. It will cost $$, but there will be a cost/benefit analysis of paying full retro vs pushing back some deliveries and whichever saves more $$ might win.


While we have more leverage than we've ever had before, we still have the threat of the recession and a potential pivot or delay in the United NEXT plan. As much as we say the Next plan is managements dream, lets be honest and agree that most pilots have waited a long time for this kind of movement.


I also agree that TA1 was a dumpster fire.


I fully expect that TA2 will probably remove:


Reserve report concession (Thanks Alaska, I think this solidified it) Be great to get 1400 report like Alaska.

TK Pup Concession (was a throw away thing for Mgt anyway)

Lineholder flexibility concessions (was a dream for Mgt to get this without any huge gains for QOL for lineholders) They will have to remove 100% of these concessions for any TA to pass and I predict this is where they will focus to pass this TA.

Scope for 50 seaters weight concession (another wolf in sheep's clothing concession that management was surprised our NC agreed to)


Management will have to bump up the pay raise. More $$ is required. I won't say what I think that # will be, but it will have to be higher than Alaska in most people's minds. I'm not 100% convinced management wants this NEXT plan as much as they say they do. This whole thing might have been a ploy all along.