Originally Posted by
Excargodog
unlike your opinion - disproved above - “given that few locations allow or have a mechanism for a direct entry captain.”
But it’s still mathematics. If the regional is losing CAs faster than they can hire DECs or upgrade FOs, the flying can only contract once existing CAs are flying their maximum allowable hours. And as they contract, even fewer FOs will become upgrade eligible - and fewer still if FOs who are already upgrade eligible consume SIC hours that might have gone to others to become upgrade eligible. That isn’t opinion, just basic theory of constraints mathematics.
While your math may be correct (I don’t really care enough to calculate it out and see if it is), my response was in your statement that FOs who don’t feel ready to upgrade at 1000 hours should find another career. While my flying skills are just fine and probably in some areas well above average, I don’t think my experience as a CFI would have made me any more ready taking on the captain role at 1000 hours. Maybe it would have. I don’t really know. I’m sure as I got closer to upgrade eligibility I would have focused in more on some of the things I’m maybe not as polished on. I probably still would have held off a little bit until fully feeling ready and I don’t blame others for doing the same. Perhaps demonstrating even more need to try to retain the employees is that I bailed before hitting 1000 hours though, and probably won’t be able to upgrade at my current company until well above 1000 hours. I’m ok with it.