YOU MISS THE POINT. It isn’t about GOJET and it isn’t about AA. It’s a queuing problem.
For a regional to remain viable they must retain CAs long enough to sit left seat enough for them to get an FO up to 1000 hours SIC. That is the ABSOLUTE MINIMUM assuming no loss of ANY FOs prior to them becoming CAs themselves (which of course there is) and no loss of any CAs prior to them getting 1000 hours of 121 PIC (which of course there is). if that is not the case ON AVERAGE than you are in a negative FEEDBACK LOOP WHERE A DIMINISHING NUMBER OF CAs will only be able to provide a diminishing number of flights leading to a diminishing number of FOs getting to upgrade eligible (and taking longer to do it) and ultimately the organization can’t continue. That CANNOT be offset by pumping new FOs in at the bottom, which will only dilute available right seat hours among a greater number of FOs, slowing their progression even more.
In fact, the loss of ANY FOs prior to becoming a CA is more devastating than the early loss of a CA. A CA that leaves after flying as a CA for 500 hours has ‘cost’ the organization 1000 hrs of SIC time but has ‘earned’ for the organization only 500 hours of SIC time, whereas any senior FO (600-800 hrs SIC) who departs gives an even lower return on ‘investment’ in terms of CA hours. Nor is it just
How many block hours do you believe you can fly a CA? In a year? Max allowed by law is 1000, but how many actually BLOCK a thousand? Considering there is going to be recurrent and two weeks of vacation and cancellations due to weather? You aren’t going to be able to get this done with an average time as a CA of 18 months even if you don’t lose a single CA before they get to 1000 121 PIC or a single FO to a ULCC. And you ARE going to lose FOs to the ULCCs (and some even to legacies) and you are going to lose a $hitload of CAs to both BEFORE they get anywhere near 1000 121 PIC.
And then there are the special cases - like the military retirees that flew C-17s, KC-135s, or B-52s for 10-12 years before flying a desk to finish out his 20 years who now comes to a regional for no other purpose than to do a touch and go - to pick up a free ATP and get current. There’s no way in hell they are going to stay around long enough to make CA- heck, they’ll quite possibly be a CA at a legacy before they could ever flow to one.
I’m sorry, but if you think increasing flow will make this situation better, you are delusional. The regionals don’t need faster career progression of their CAs to remain viable, they need slower career progression. But with the majors hiring like they are, they aren’t going to get it.
Best option for people at the regionals, barring a truly devastating recession ( and I’ll give you that this administration is doing their best to engineer that) is to go wherever you can get in the quickest and where they are going to work you like the proverbial rented mule, get all the SIC hours you can until a major (any major) will give you an interview, and then get a second type there, where disappearing CAs are not yet an issue, while putting out and constantly upgrading apps for whoever you want to work for. Otherwise you are going to be the one with no seat at the table when the regional system fails.
If I haven’t explained it adequately for you, buy the book:
https://www.dummies.com/article/busi...raints-255110/