Originally Posted by Andy

Last comment first: ABSOLUTELY CNBC is full of Wall Street shills. But I've been watching for so long that I know that everyone's talking their book. It's a question of whether or not it makes sense to me, and a lot of what's said by the 'experts' doesn't make sense to me. A lot of those talking heads collect their fees based on AUM (assets under management for those not familiar with the abbreviation) so of course they're constantly pushing for people to invest more and dollar cost average.
I especially get a chuckle out of Cathie Wood, Elon Musk, and a few others warning the Fed to stop raising rates.

For returns, I've averaged better than 42% over several 2 year periods in the last decade. But I was invested in ETFs which had significant positions in FANG stocks, as I specifically looked for that in ETFs. I'm sure that those funds are further out on the risk spectrum than you're comfortable.
There is a lot of cash on the sidelines that is waiting for the Fed to pivot; that is a coiled spring that will have the markets have a significant initial recovery. You are much more risk averse since you're in retirement so I don't expect you to dive into non-dividend paying tech stocks which are likely to show those returns.

We are currently at the point where TINA's (there is no alternative) dead and many are parking their assets in US bonds (ironically, not British Gilts). When the Fed pivots and starts lowering interest rates, there will be less new money flowing into bonds because equities will once again offer a better return.



I'm perfectly fine with a rate of return at the moment below the rate of inflation, as I'm currently in a return of capital mode rather than return on capital. There will be opportunities in the future to get returns above the rate of inflation, but if depleting one's capital means you have to work much harder to get back to even.

Interesting choice to buy bonds initially. Which part of the curve and are you going into other products than Treasuries?

Hopp and Tallpilot, thanks for the discussion/exchange. I encounter far too many brain dead people who simply subscribe to the Boglehead school of thought where one dollar cost averages in both up and down markets which ultimately enriches fund managers. I find it very tiring when so many people who know nothing about the fundamentals of investing and the markets state something along the lines of it being unavoidable to dodge large market declines. The discussion with both of you has been a breath of fresh air.