Well, the B6 pilot group - at least those aboard before the cutoff date - is generally senior to the NK group and has NOT been expanding 15% per year preCOVID. Both groups are relatively young and don’t have legions of imminent retirements. Post merger, many of the incoming aircraft will go to replace some of the older B6 aircraft and the retiring E-190 aircraft so the net effect on new guys will be a slowing of seniority by expansion. Just how much depends on whether they are able to control attrition but generally speaking once a CA gets senior enough to hold a line they generally stay put.

I’m guessing maybe a five year upgrade for someone starting today, which by historical measures is pretty good actually, but nowhere near the current opportunities for NB upgrades at some multi type legacies that incentivized their senior pilots to take early retirement at the onset of COVID and still have a decade of high age-related retirement numbers coming.