Yes, it will be very interesting to see how it plays out.

The railroad unions have agreed to maintain the status quo period until at least November 19, after the mid-term elections. Railway Age reports that the unions have agreed to maintain status quo until early December.

After the mid-term elections, Congress will be in a lame duck period. I don't know how interested Congress will be in expending the energy to put together a filibuster-proof number of votes to prohibit the railroad unions from striking during that time. I don't know that Democrats will want to appear to turn their back on a major block of labor and hand the Republicans talking points for the 2024 elections.

If the status quo period does not get extended again and the railroad unions and management do not agree to new terms, then a strike might end up occurring if Congress doesn't have the will to act. As explained by one former Biden Administration Labor Adviser, "Congress could legislate a resolution, but the hyper-partisanship that surrounds labor policy in the U.S. Congress makes finding 60 votes for any solution in an evenly divided Senate a long shot, at best." That being said, the September resolution by Republican Senator Burr to bar the railroad unions from striking is still being circulated.

The new Congress will not be sworn in until January 3, 2023. That means that, until the probable GOP House and possible Senate majority takes over in January, it's unlikely the Republican-sponsored legislation barring a railroad strike will have enough votes to be approved. Even if Congress manages to cobble together the votes during the lame duck session, would Biden sign it? If he vetoed it, would the House and Senate have the votes to override a veto?

If Congress is unable to get a bill signed into law forcing the railroad workers back to work, we might see a holiday season railroad strike. That seems like it could create a lot of leverage for the railroad unions. Maybe that's what they're thinking.

Regardless, it's pretty far from certain that Congress will want to or be able to head off a railroad union strike. A ton of uncertainty around the possibility. We will see what happens.