Originally Posted by
DMH1967
All valid points, and indicative of what the entire industry is dealing with. Even LCCs can hold onto pilots through training, or year 1. This is part of why I expect the FFD model is going to end, and all wholly-owned carriers will be absorbed eventually. Companies need pilots to come on board and stay, and regionals just can't sustain that these days.
The industry is cyclical. This cycle won’t last, which is why AAG was willing to throw the money at it that they did and have the 50% pay premium only through Aug 2023. In 12 to 16 or so months, the majors will be caught up on the hiring deficit that was caused by the Covid early retirements. Majors will go back to not hiring pilots without TPIC unless they have some “special” qualification and pilots will go back to needing those jobs that regionals have. You have to look at the BIG picture. Part of that is looking beyond JUST the pilots. The regional model saves money.
There was a graphic that I wished I had saved because I can’t find it. It was from one of the industry hiring groups, but it PERFECTLY showed the number of pilots that retired early because of Covid and retirements verses hiring and what the curve looked like to get the rosters filled again. Baring any major recession, which will only reduce the time frame, major hiring will be caught up by sometime in 2023. And for those that argue there are still a lot of retirements on the horizon, I emphasize CAUGHT UP. There will still be significant hiring, just not the mad scramble there currently is.
There is some growth that will be permanently pulled up to mainline, and regionals will probably still be a little smaller, but there are so many markets that just can’t support anything bigger than RJ service.