Even better question, why didn’t you read the post? It says why I’m agnostic. You can put retro value anywhere, from 100% upfront in a check, combination of a check and larger raises for out years, or no retro check and even larger out year raises. The total value at the end is what matters. A simple calculator can tell the whole story. Context gives meaning.

I just went through the calculation for the latest and greatest rumor at United. 15 5 5, not including the 5% coming in 2023. So really it would be 15, 10, 5. It’s unclear whether or how much retro was stipulated in the rumor. Looking at inflation, they would beat it by .6% compounded annually for the 6 year deal. Not great, but a positive number and certainly better than the long term negative number. Any retro will of course move the annual compounded rate higher.

Some will declare victory if we capture inflation. Some will declare victory if we capture inflation plus x%. Everyone’s x is different. Less than 100 retro upfront may do the trick to reach your x depending on what the initial pay raise and outlying years look like.

My personal desire is to maximize the attainable value over the entire contract.