Question re hypothetical midair collision
This question came to me, and I don't know whether it has been addressed before or elsewhere. I don't want to be macabre, so I suppose you could substitute "a bird" for the 152.
Hypothetical scenario:
737 Departs JFK on a flight to MIA.
Upon approach to MIA, 737 collides with a Cessna 152 midair. Everyone miraculously survives.
Two passengers just missed the 737 flight from JFK, and marvel at how lucky they were to have missed the flight.
Hypothetical analysis:
If the two potential passengers had not missed the flight, the 737 would have, by a miniscule amount, a longer takeoff roll, since it is .23% heavier.
The 737 would see very slightly different winds, have a different fuel burn rate, different control input responses, etc.
After multiplying all of these tiny differences over 1100 NM, what are the chances that the planes would have been in the same place at the same time over MIA ? At 250 knots, if the 737 arrives at the collision spot .1 second earlier or later, it misses the 152 (40 feet displacement).
I'm waiting for minds greater than mine to figure this one out.