All speculation: 12-24 months. The economic uncertainty is growing. The company only benefits to drag this out. Coming off of two very strong quarters, why not wait to see what happens over the next 3-9 months and perhaps reclaim some negotiating leverage? They will still fill class seats regardless of our incredibly substandard year 1-5 pay (you will make $200k less here than the legacies year 1-5) because regional pilots still want to move up to the "big leagues" (understandably), mil guys are still separating/retiring, etc.

Nobody wants to go first because they either overpay or they get passed immediately by competitors. Hot take, the regionals are NOT dead. Yes these new contracts are stupid expensive but once the big 4 drop new contracts, it will still be cheap labor. The hub and spoke model relies very heavily on bringing in people from the small markets, this is why the codeshares are willing to pay it. 24 months from now, these regional contracts will still be a fraction of mainline rates.

My pay expectations:

Current converted to hours:

12 yrs CA: $274.03
12 yrs FO: $191.81 (70% of CA)
05 yrs FO: $164.55 (86% of max FO)
01 yrs FO: $84.52 (44% of max FO)

In the year 2000, before all the CONCESSIONARY CONTRACTS, the going rate for a 737 classic Captain at max pay was around $226 per hour. Adjusted for inflation (Source BLS: CPI Index) is $399.

New Rates:

12 yrs CA: $399
12 yrs FO: $279.30
05 yrs FO: $240.20
01 yrs FO: $122.90

Now keep in mind, these rates are only reclaiming the concessions we gave up. This does NOT include a single pay raise or account for the fact that we are flying planes with 30-50 more seats. If we vote yes on anything less than this, we are still taking a massive paycut. Demand what you are worth!