United is hiring not just to replace retirements, but to fulfill the United Next plan which predicates on replacing regional lift with NB aircraft. Will they still go this route if the regional lift survives the pilot shortage? According to the FAA the number of new ATP certificates issued in 2022 is over 8,100! The 2021-2022 post covid period saw big hiring numbers thanks covid early retirements. If the 8,100 plus new ATP certificates continues year over year, the regionals will restock on pilots as mainline hiring slows down. Mainline hiring will slow down as they have already hired thousands to cover the sudden covid early retirements. All the hiring at this point is for future growth. United might find itself over supplied with pilots in the next couple years as it realizes that it doesn't need to grow to replace the regional lift anymore.

Granted, United's peak retirement numbers are still yet to come but still won't need to hire over 800 pilots annually to cover that.

At AA, theyre dont have any growth plans other than adding more 787's, theyre just covering huge retirement numbers. My bet is they order more widebodies in the future to replace all of the 76's and 330's they retired that will put them around 200 widebodies in the next 10 years. Thats a lot of lost profit opportunity that i dont think any airline BOD's will tolerate long term, but they have that delicate balance sheet to consider.

Throw a recession into the mix and United might be furloughing by 2024.