Nine out of eight times the "experts" can't time the market.

And a lot of the recession-chicken-littles are politically manipulated, who have been told if "their" guy isn't in the White House, a recession will surely follow. They are even less reliable than the financial "experts".

Now of course, a broken clock is still right twice a day, and recessions are normal and regular/cyclical phenomenon, and the US is overdue for one, having just had one of the strongest and longest bull markets in history, spanning 3 presidential administrations. And yet the planes are still full and the consumer is still too strong for the feds metrics.

Is a recession coming? Probably. Will it be more than a garden variety recession? Maybe, maybe not.