Originally Posted by Cujo665

Incorrect. They were still demanding and getting concessionary contracts right up through 2015.
in late 2016 they started with QOL improvements like hotels in base, and hotels for commuters, and softening of some of the more harsh treatment.
Bonus pay showed up later around 2017 in most cases.

You can literally pull your CBA and read the LOA's one at a time adding back QOL measures, then bonus programs, and finally actual pay raises.

In general, I agree with the rest of your post.

The pilot shortage was entirely caused by management chipping away at wages, working conditions, benefits & retirement over several decades until new FO's qualified for food stamps and other public assistance programs for several years.
As the total compensation reduced each year, the total time experience level of the available job candidates went lower and lower as well. What originally took around 4500 hours experience with an ATP eventually degraded to - in late 2007 - having an ink wet commercial ticket. Even then, the managements continued demanding concessions right up through 2015.
They were told by the unions that a retirement bubble was less than 5-6 years away and that if they could barely fill seats now, what were they going to do when the majors start sucking up all their pilots. The few union leaders at several regionals that fought with management over their own shortsightedness were targeted and silenced in the same ways management always silenced union leaders they didn't like. The record at our airline was a union guy getting fired 7 times for stupid BS they invented.

Anyway, the shortage was created by management making the job not worth having anymore to the point that they could only attract ink wet commercials. They like to blame the ATP rule, and from 2013 to 2015 that may have played a small role. As new guys hit the start of the change, they had to continue building experience to get the ATP, (which is still less than what it historically took to get the job). Once they hit the ATP minimums, the supply chain was back in normal operation and the ATP rule wasn't a factor in the shortage anymore. The number of new pilots entering training for the profession was the limiting factor; and that was driven down by management themselves.

Make no mistake, all this rubbish about the ATP rule (it's not a 1500 hour rule) causing a shortage, is lies and misdirection. Every CEO of every regional should be fired by their BOD for the inept mismanagement they all participated in. They were told by the union leaders that this would be the result. They didn't care. They still don't. They'll be happy to whipsaw everybody again once the supply exceeds the demand again. You've got less than 4 years for that now, with a recession it will be sooner.