Originally Posted by
RamenNoodles
I have to disagree. 50 seaters are definitely going to decline, but there will always be a rather large market for them. Especially given the current scope clauses in place at the majors. DL has already reached the maximum amount of 76 seat aircraft in the DCI fleet, and jets that size aren't allowed under the CO banner in any form.
50 seaters still make a huge amount of money if utilized properly. Many of the markets they are used in have huge premiums on ticket prices that offset the cost of the aircraft's inefficiency, and many of those markets can't support a larger aircraft and are beyond the efficient range of a turboprop.
Yes, the 50 seat fleet is going to take a beating, but 50 seat flying and RFP's will keep coming, especially as we see the less stable regionals taking hits.
Bombardier has not built or taken an order for a fifty seater in several years. Embraer may have a small backlog, but no orders...and I'd be surprised if that order backlog didn't get converted to larger airframes.
There may be some small amount of shuffling for niche markets, but nothing large enough to absorb 35 airplanes...unless CAL uses them to replace the next round of XJET contract cuts. I suppose that's possible since JO will be bidding awfully low.
If oil goes down to $50, then all bets are off of course.