Originally Posted by
sailingfun
Yes, it’s part of the plan. Still 250 737’s in the next 2 years is vastly more seats than the 150 RJ’s they plan to drop over that time frame. Add in Delta and American growth plus large orders at the ULC’s and domestic capacity is going to soar. How yields respond remains to be seen. Historically airlines are boom or bust. The 2012 to 2019 boom era was one of the few where capacity restraint was practiced to a degree. It paid off in spades. Managements like pilots can’t seem to respect what historically leads to success.
kirby is extremely familiar with AA and their weaknesses. He is very much in a position to move UA from 3rd size wise to a clear 1st among US carriers. DL is still not at our pre Covid size measured by seats available, we also probably won’t match his capacity growth, and AA is in a weak position if yields suffer too much.
it’s more like a prisoner's dilemma, if everyone keeps capacity tight we all do better…but individually if I am able to grow capacity significantly and none of my competitors can I will be much better off. And I think this is what Kirby is doing.
I personally think he is going all in with a full house, knowing no one else has a 4 of a kind and fairly confident no one has a straight flush.