There is a vacancy bid open right now and we get "snapshots" of what it would look like based on the current bids pilots have in the system. That shows 80 unfilled 756 FO slots in EWR, which would then all be given to new hires (theoretically). So, that would cover basically the entire reserve list for EWR. So anybody that already has that assignment on the property would move up by those 80 numbers as a minimum. This vacancy bid has an effective date of next May, so theoretically all 80 of those folks would be out on the line by then, meaning anyone hired this month would potentially be a line holder (or very senior reserve) by May/June.

They are talking about 2500 new hires for 2023, so I think it is safe to say (barring a black swan type event) the insane movement we have been seeing lately is going to become much more of the new normal. If we get the much needed imporvements to reserve then the Captain juniority may disipate somewhat, but with all the planes they have coming I don't think reserve improvements are going to change the fact that folks will be able to get a Captain bid extremely quickly.. Maybe not in a year, but I bet even with much better reserve rules the Captain upgrade will still be available much faster than at any other time in our history.