Originally Posted by
capncrunch
The reality is that we are in a recession backed by high oil which requires us to cinch our belt and weather the storm. If we shrink a little right now to survive, that makes sense. What would be bad is if we were shrinking during growing times. Ultimately, last one on the field wins. I hope we all survive.
That's right cap. Unfortunately the "cinching of the belt" will be done between DAL and NWA to get this merger done. I read an article that explained one of the driving forces to get this merger done is access to the capital markets. With and improved rating on the combined airline, the access to needed liquidity will be more available.
The name of the game is survival. Who can ride out the storm the longest and be standing to monopolize the markets. The NWA/DAL deal is good as done, notwithstanding the governments intervention in stopping it due to job losses.
The only problem is too many promises were made by RA and will be broken. I expect more layoffs/ offers to leave after the merger. This deal is getting done, count on it. Air France wants it and is willing to pay money to see it happen. Right there is access to cash to weather the storm. If things are rough after the merger, and access to the markets for credit is tight, Air France will be entrenched and will provide the needed capital to sustain the downturn until the merged company can get its act together.
After the second part of the Open Skies agreement is finalized, Air France will buy into even a larger portion of DAL and may end up owning controlling interest. Thats just a guess, but probably not too far-out of one nonetheless.
The way I see this, DAL/NWA....CAL/UAL and then AA pushing for AA/BA. The industry will be in the toilet and foreign money will be needed for survival. Government will agree to some sort of subsidies that will ease the fear for continued investment by foreign money.
If the above does not happen, someone is going down and the fire sale of the remains will fit nicely into SWA's need for a turn-key int'l operation.
So that being said, I see SWA waiting in the wings for their big push to go international.