Yes. Our delivery schedule puts us around 145 aircraft at the end of 2023. Airbus has been running behind so it is unlikely we will get to that number. But let’s assume they catch up and all orders are on time. If you go with 15.5 pilots per AC we will need 2250. 16 we need 2320. With the new class we should be right at 2000. So the current level of attrition is acceptable although cutting it close. But as we hire more the attrition total will pick up simply based on percentages. When you start to count other airlines getting contracts or similar base options as United just announced that will throw more inconsistency into the current hiring/retention rate formula.

I’ve tracked it as detailed as I can and our average attrition has been 20 per month since June based on Flica data. They are clearly trying to slow the attrition by paying for hotels, first year raises, and now the bonus. Time will tell if they can get away with their games or if something much more drastic is needed. Personally I think something more drastic is required as one member posted that the average seniority of attrition is 2.4 years. That means it’s more than first year pay that is the issue. It’s the total compensation package with a large helping of QOL and treating people with respect.

Hopefully the current lessons of Spirit and now SW are being noted. Whenever you gamble you eventually lose and right now team green is gambling.