Originally Posted by
sailingfun
I don't think SWA has any desire to go international other then Central and some South America. There business model just does not support that type of operation. No quick turns and all the hassles plus costs of flying international. With their employee costs they would have a tough time competing. Having your aircraft tied up for hours awaiting customs clearances is not something they would tolerate well let alone positive bag match and the extra personal required to staff rechecking baggage and other issues in customs..
I tend to agree with all that you say, however; the industry is entering a new paradigm. SWA's model was the standard for an airline to be successful in a domestic market. The problem is the downward pressure in the US from a global perspective. The US is no longer "the" cash cow of the free market. Many economies are emerging where the masses have money to spend on vacations abroad. Hence the weak dollar and the in-flux of vacationers to the US.
If SWA wants to relieve itself from the burdens of the boom and bust cycle of the US economy, they have to stretch their markets. This is why I believe they will need more than a S. AM and Mexico solution. Even those two destinations would require an overhaul of their reservation system and seating policy. The manifest requirements would obviously be one reason.
So, a turn-key international operation, (767's 777's on the cheap) would fit the bill. One example!!! Lets say a large carrier in a major market goes belly-up and has to file for BK. No capital to be found and the new unfriendly BK laws necessitate a liquidation of assets. Well, SWA would be a good bet for this scenario. I'm sure other airlines could take advantage too.
But I see this as a possibility. If not, I believe SWA is in for a rough ride due to their domestic exposure and weak dollar. DAL for example gets a portion of their revenue paid in Euros. It will only get better as the joint (anti-trust) venture with Air France matures. See where this is going?