Originally Posted by rickair7777

Actively driving towards regime change in RU is fraught with peril, for multiple reasons.

IMO our Realpolitik on this is preventing RU from succeeding in taking over UR. That alone will damage the RU regime, and also send the message to the whole world that we won't sit idly by while autocrats change national borders to suit their taste.

Passively assisting those who oppose the regime, hoping for or relishing a regime change is OK. If we force a regime change, we'll get blamed for the near-inevitable fallout... and that's for non-peer, non-nuclear states. RU, PRC, NK present a whole 'nother set of risks.

There are a variety of ways we can "win" in UR... by we I mean the US/NATO/the West, not necessarily UR/Zelenskyy.

RU might need to be allowed to keep some territory to save face, since that's a practical political reality. But the net cost to the regime will be very high, and they won't do it again anytime soon. And PRC observed what happened too... IMO that's half the reason we needed to draw a line in the sand on this. Maybe more than half the reason.