Justabusdriver, I do agree that a larger more stable better paying combined airline will likely see less attrition. That's a good point. However I also believe neither JB nor NK has been able to grow as fast as they hoped in the last few years, partly due to attrition, attraction, and aircraft delivery delays. For Spirit's they haven't been able to grow the group large enough to fully utilize their fleet, and this has also been the case at Blue, but to a lesser extent.

In the coming years aircraft delivery delays should normalize, and both JB and NK should be able to get aircraft utilization up (as a combined company) relative to recent years. At the same time I do not see pilot utilization going up from where it is, at least on the JB side. Other than the change from going from 3 fleets to 2.

Net that all out and I'm not sure I see upgrade slowing nearly as much as was suggested. But none of us know how the coming years will go, so there's that.

Upgrades at the legacies will also be slowing in the coming years as they hit the back sides of there hiring curve.

Agree with Excargo, need to have a great reserve section in the CBA. It should be an additional attractive bidding option that all can chose to utilize often or occasionally as they see fit.

I don't think 200 FO's senior to the junior captain is an unusual number though. I think you will find that statistically at all airlines as some guys prefer schedule control/seniority in seat over a little more money and the loss of seniority that comes with early upgrade.