I wouldn't count out some of the Aloha/ATA/Skybus/et al pilots finding their way back down to the regionals. With very few regionals even hiring right now, and almost none of the majors, these pilots may not have another choice should they decide to stay in the airline business.

We have a handful of ex-Midway guys left here, not to mention the AA, DL, NW, and US furloughees (most of which have gone back) that sought refuge with a regional during their furlough period. There are even a few guys that found themselves jobless when PanAm ceased operations, and they still work here.

A wave of airline shutdowns affects everyone in the industry, no matter what level you are on. A pool of surplus, qualified will have an impact all the way down to the CFI level. More pilots + less jobs = higher minimums, longer upgrades, slow movement, etc. It doesn't really matter where the unfortunate pilots find other jobs (and I hope they do find other work), because those are just more jobs that the rest of us can't move into for the short term.