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Old 01-23-2023, 06:52 AM
  #15  
FlyinCat
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Joined APC: Aug 2016
Posts: 297
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Of course there are no guarantees, even going to mainline or LCC and starting at the bottom you could be looking at furloughs if we get into a recession. I'll sit tight unless it starts to look rocky then I'll probably go somewhere like Flexjet or Atlas that offers home based options. I have other work options besides flying and other sources of income, so I'm not super worried about this.

My predictions/suggestions:

WOs will begin to cannibalize their competitors. The salaries may have peaked but bonuses haven't. Going to a WO is a better prospect now especially if there is flow. Throw in a $50k-$100k cash carrot and no one will even look at the other guys.
Non WOs will consolidate as a few of the weaker ones collapse. But I don't see a company that flies E-jets buying a company that flies RJs or vice versa. A bankruptcy however will flood the market with pilots for a while and stabilize the ones left standing, at least temporarily.
The non WOs should seriously consider diversifying. YX has built a brand new E-Jet training facility, why not start training competitor's pilots as well? And charge a premium for training and support? Heck, maybe even extend the LIFT program to competitors as well.
Non WOs might also consider competing directly with LCCs and pick up some A320s or similar, or combine with an LCC to offer expanded options to customers.

I also wouldn't be surprised if some shady back door deals happen that see some airlines agree not to recruit from each other. Completely illegal of course but it's happened in other industries.
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